FanBoardHQ

Colorado State

Colorado State University · 2024 · Mountain West

FanBoardHQ CFP
#74
Efficiency
-8.7
99th FBS
Record
8-5
Conf. record
6-1
Conf. finish
T-2nd
of 12
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Colorado State went 8-5 and was ranked 74th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 63rd-ranked defense carried them, with an 118th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 55% of offensive plays with a 102nd-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 45% of plays with a 68th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-1
Q3
0-1
Q4
8-2

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 8.0 wins
Strength of Record
62nd
-2.9 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
104th
full season
104th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
81st
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.4 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ TexasSEC#5L 052-35.60%-15.4Q1
2vs Northern ColoradoBig SkyW 3817+33.4100%-21.6Q4
3vs ColoradoBig 12#26L 928-18.30%-12.7Q2
4vs UTEPConference USA#126W 2717+16.3100%-15.0Q4
6@ Oregon StatePac-12#100L 3139-0.10%-9.6Q4
7vs San José StateMountain West#88W 3124+1.0100%-2.5Q4
8@ Air ForceMountain West#103W 2113+0.9100%1.3Q4
9vs New MexicoMountain West#107W 176+8.2100%-5.1Q4
10@ NevadaMountain West#119W 3821-1.3100%18.6Q4
12vs WyomingMountain West#118W 2410+6.3100%-1.9Q4
13@ Fresno StateMountain West#93L 2228-6.30%-8.5Q3
14vs Utah StateMountain West#110W 4237+5.2100%-10.2Q4
Postseason
vs Miami-OHMid-American#59L 1743-6.00%-31.1Q4

13 played · 8-5. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Colorado State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-18.4-1.5+15.3-15-22-13-15-10-31-519-2-9-10Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 68th
SR 100thYPP 68thEPA 51st
RushingEff 102nd
SR 95thYPP 82ndEPA 110th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 98th
SR 105thYPP 82ndEPA 98th
Rush defenseEff 88th
SR 76thYPP 92ndEPA 92nd
Dropback rate 45%Tempo -2.7 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 87th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 46%1st2nd · Offense: 43%2nd · Defense allowed: 41%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 40%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 42%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 65.0Q1 · Allowed: 48.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 74.0Q2 · Allowed: 88.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 55.0Q3 · Allowed: 80.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 100.0Q4 · Allowed: 100.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledColorado StateOffenseDefense
Colorado State Offense vs Defense, 2024
Offensive EffRanked 118th
-8.2
Field position: -1.4Finishing drives: -6.8
Field position -1.4Finishing drives -6.8= -8.2
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 107th · Finishing 114th

Defensive EffRanked 63rd
+1.0
Field position: -1.4Finishing drives: +2.4
Field position -1.4Finishing drives +2.4= +1.0
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 119th · Finishing 50th

1.91 points per drive on offense, 1.93 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 29.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(193)36% / 64%43%6.3
Q2(201)48% / 52%42%5.9
Q3(185)50% / 50%43%6.2
Q4(249)50% / 50%41%5.7
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(118)10.347%6.9
2nd(133)9.541%6.1
3rd(116)8.031%7.0
4th(15)5.267%14.8
All (382)41%7.0
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(238)10.041%5.1
2nd(140)6.844%5.5
3rd(56)4.446%4.4
4th(12)1.867%6.8
All (446)43%5.2

Colorado State, all games.

Colorado State Football 2024 — Efficiency & Rankings · FanBoardHQ